After my previous post (which disappeared in cyber space) 10 days ago about the KU analysis, I decided to post an update.
What do we see in this chart?
As expected, the downwards spiral in sales and KU/KOLL units seems to stabilize and the short-term graphs seem to pick up again. Let’s see if that trends continues (which will happen if the short-term graphs crosses the long-term graphs).
Now what may we expect from the KU commission for the month of August?
As we can see in the chart, the KU units moved steep upwards right after the introduction, but then boiled down to a level that seems to stabilize. The level on which it stabilizes is about half of its peak. But KU was only started mid July. This means that mathematically speaking, because the average volume is only half of the peak, but the period is twice as long, the total KU units in August should be somewhere around two times the amount of July.
On a couple of units close, that’s confirmed by my own data.My total KU units for August are twice of those from July.
Now the total fund that was set aside for KU/KOLL in July was $2.785.000 . The fund that has been reserved for August is $2.000.000. Which is just 7,7% more then in August.
So if all these suppositions get confirmed within 10 days or so, it means that either we or Amazon will have a problem, because the fund only grew with 7.7% but the volume has doubled. I will spare you the math, but this would mean that if the fund doesn’t get topped up, the KU/KOLL commission will be …. $0.65 cts.
I cannot imagine that Amazon will slam it down to that level, because a lot of authors would abandon the ship.
Second scenario: Amazon tops up the fund with such an amount that the commission will be 1.80 like last month. How much do they have to put in? $3.536.000 … (which makes the total $5.536.000)
Yep, that’s a lot.
And than there are of course all the scenarios in the middle. Let’s hope that Amazon realizes that they cannot do without their authors, and that they are playing this for the long-term, even if they have to put in some extra dollars at the start.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed and keep it on $1.80 like last month.
Bets are open.